A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
